Performance
Walk-forward backtest over 1,748 completed series from 2024-01-13 through 2026-06-08. Predictions are made before each rating update.
Brier score
0.2079
Lower is better; 0.250 is a coin-flip baseline for balanced matches.
Log loss
0.6025
Penalizes overconfident misses.
Reliability
| Predicted bin | N | Avg pred | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20% | 11 | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| 20-30% | 58 | 26.5% | 27.6% |
| 30-40% | 122 | 35.6% | 35.2% |
| 40-50% | 320 | 45.7% | 52.8% |
| 50-60% | 363 | 54.8% | 62.3% |
| 60-70% | 356 | 65.2% | 71.6% |
| 70-80% | 307 | 75.0% | 74.6% |
| 80-90% | 176 | 84.5% | 84.1% |
| 90-100% | 35 | 92.5% | 94.3% |